When I called our long-time electrician recently to ask him to replace a defective thermostat, no one answered his office phone. I managed to reach him on his cell phone, and he told me that he had retired and moved to another town. “Who’s taken over your business,” I asked? “No one,” he replied, explaining that he tried but failed to find a younger person with the skill set and the interest. “I just closed the business.”
A few weeks before that we received a letter from our plumbing and heating company informing us that it would no longer be servicing our heating equipment because it hadn’t been able to find young people interested in learning the necessary skills.
Two personal anecdotes don’t prove that the U.S. has a shortage of skilled workers, but we do–and not just electricians but also plumbers, nurses, auto mechanics, and construction workers. While some states are moving to address these shortages, much more needs to be done.
Electricians: The shortage is real and growing, because the move toward a Green economy is increasing the demand. “Every year, nearly 10,000 electricians either retire or change careers, but only 7,000 new ones enter the field. While the shortfall finds homeowners lamenting about how long it takes to find an electrician for wiring projects, entire industries — including construction, manufacturing, renewable energy, technology and utilities — are confronting project delays and increased labor costs.”
Plumbers: The US is expected to be short about 550,000 just two years from now, according to an analysis by John Dunham & Associates, a research company in Longboat Key, Florida. The gap cost our economy $22 billion in 2022, according to the same study. Bloomberg reports that a plumber in San Jose, CA, makes over $100,000 a year.
Construction Workers: The construction industry alone has more than 650,000 open jobs, according to Black & Decker CEO Jim Leoree. “The construction industry will need to attract an estimated 501,000 additional workers on top of the normal pace of hiring in 2024 to meet the demand for labor, according to a proprietary model developed by Associated Builders and Contractors. In 2025, the industry will need to bring in nearly 454,000 new workers on top of normal hiring to meet industry demand, and that’s presuming that construction spending growth slows significantly next year.”
Nurses: Basically, the U.S. will be short about 400,000 registered nurses and licensed practical nurses a year from now. Here are the nursing shortage statistics predicted for 2026:
- Registered nurses – 10% shortage, equivalent to 350,540 unoccupied positions
- Licensed practical nurses – 7% shortage, equivalent to 46,920 unoccupied positions
Auto Mechanics: The U.S. is facing a shortage of about 600,000 auto mechanics, according to a recent study. As in the other trades, causes include an aging workforce and major cuts in vocational education programs in high schools. The shortage has ripple effects, influencing costs, wait times, and potentially safety. The general truths of this writer’s observations about auto technicians apply as well to electricians, plumbers, and other skilled laborers.
The auto mechanic shortage does not stop at the shop door; it reverberates across the entire automotive industry, influencing service quality, costs, and even vehicle longevity. A direct consequence of the mechanic shortage is elongated service times, straining customer patience and impacting overall satisfaction with automotive services. This delay not only inconveniences the vehicle owner but can also compromise vehicle performance and safety.
As the basic principles of economics dictate, scarcity leads to increased costs. Labor charges escalate as skilled auto mechanics become rarer, ultimately burdening consumers with higher service bills—a trend that could exacerbate as the shortage continues. Routine maintenance is paramount for the longevity and safety of a vehicle. A shortage of mechanics means that many vehicles might not receive the timely or quality care needed, potentially leading to more frequent breakdowns and accidents.
Artificial barriers to entering these fields–including racism, misogyny, and parochialism–are partially to blame for the current shortage, as are the COVID-19 pandemic and an aging labor force. However, much of the blame lies with our misguided belief that the primary goal of high school is to send its graduates on to college. For years now, we have put intense pressure on high school students to attend college, implying that any other path is a road to failure. Trades have long been stigmatized as ‘dirty work,’ appropriate only for those perceived as ‘less able.’ They were then tracked into less prestigious vocational education…but at least they had access to training. Not any more, because when school budgets tightened, many high school vocational training programs simply disappeared, replaced by an inexpensive slogan, “College for All.” This approach has sent millions of young people down a path they weren’t really interested in, leading to academic failure, crushing debt, and, for some anyway, resentment toward ‘the elites’ whose policies and pressures sent them down this unsatisfying road. We are not talking trivial numbers here: Nearly 37,000,000 Americans are in the SCNC category, “Some College, No Credential.” They may also have crippling debt as well.
How many of these individuals would be happier if they’d had the opportunity to become plumbers, electricians, nurses, construction workers, or auto mechanics? How many instead are waiting on tables, parking cars, flipping burgers, or stocking shelves, stuck in dead end jobs because their college debt burden means they cannot afford vocational training required to enter a trade?
And training is essential because fixing cars, installing electrical systems and plumbing, or putting up high rise buildings is highly skilled work. If you question that, pop the hood on a new model car, electric, internal combustion, or hybrid!
Shedding the pro-college bias is an essential step to solving our labor shortage, because this elitist view has plagued politics–especially among Democrats–for years.
It’s simply the wrong measuring stick. Instead, we should be asking each young person “How are you smart?” because that way we would learn what they are interested in, what excites them, and what they want to know more about. Instead, we ask “How smart are you?”, or–more crassly–”Are you smart enough to go to college?” Asking the right question allows teachers to incorporate each student’s unique strengths and interests, as well as their culture and language, to create meaningful learning opportunities.
Regarding the current shortages, there are no easy solutions, although America has aggressively recruited nurses from the Philippines for years. Becoming a plumber or an electrician can take up to five years, and HVAC apprenticeship programs take three to five years. That’s because “the infrastructure to train somebody in a skilled trade has never really left the 19th century,” according to Josh Hawley, director of the Ohio Education Research Center at Ohio State University. “You need a very long lead time in order to ramp up capacity,” he told Bloomberg.
At least four steps are in order:
1) Immigration has helped alleviate the nursing shortage, and it might be a short-term solution for our shortage of electricians, plumbers, construction workers, and other essential workers.
2) Opening up the trades, most of them historically white and male, to women and people of color is also essential to long term solutions. Apprenticeships may be in order, because vocational education opportunities in high school are uncommon.
3) Restoring vocational, technical, and occupational education in our high and middle schools is another necessary step toward a long term permanent solution. This is happening in many parts of the country. This year legislators in most states have introduced nearly 60 pieces of Career and Technical Education-related legislation, including Alabama’s alternative diploma pathway for students focused on career education and Oklahoma’s aerospace and aviation career programs for K-12 schools. Connecticut’s “Technical Education and Career System” consists of 17 diploma-granting technical high schools, a technical education center, and two airframe mechanics and aircraft maintenance programs; however, Connecticut has 431 public high schools, and it’s not clear whether the other 414 offer vocational and technical opportunities. North Carolina’s community college system has established “Propel NC,” which is designed to make community colleges more responsive to the needs of employers. Texas is tying community college funding to outcomes, including dual enrollment and work force success.
It seems reasonable to expect all middle and high schools in every state to provide information about a wide variety of occupations and professions, while also encouraging project-based learning in school and apprenticeships outside of school.
4) Changing our attitudes about physical labor is essential. We were warned about the folly of ‘College for All’ a long time ago. Back in 1988, “The Forgotten Half” made it clear the policy of pushing everyone toward college was damaging lives and our economy. “We have never defined what we want for, or from, the young among us who do not attend college. We wish them to be ‘educated’–but we cannot define what that means in practical terms. We hope they will become ‘employable’–yet the typical employment made available to non-college graduates in the emerging service economy too often supports a family only at the poverty level. We want them to be ‘good citizens’–but we do not weave them meaningfully into the fabric of our communities.”
And later, these important words: In every practical sense, we have made schooling a synonym for education. And we have defined the primary purpose of schooling as entry into college. Both attitudes are a mistake.
The purpose of schooling is not to get students into college. Its purpose is to help grow American citizens. Parse the last four words. ‘Help’ means schooling is a team sport, with parents and educators on the same side. ‘Grow’ means schooling is a process. A film, and not a snapshot (or a single test score!). ‘American’ is who we are, and we should embrace and understand our complicated history. ‘Citizen’ is a bit more complicated, but to me it means voting, participating in community life in whatever ways one is comfortable with, and looking out for others. As ‘The Forgotten Half’ puts it, “The purpose of education is to create whole human beings….schools and colleges are only one means of educating people for life.”
Face facts: most jobs today do not require four years of college, even though some employers and job descriptions continue to demand a 4-year degree. This so-called “Paper Ceiling” is an unnecessary barrier that should be shredded.
The general public seems to be increasingly aware of what’s happening. A 2021 report from Gallup indicated that nearly half of all parents are OK with their children not attending a 4-year college. “While attending a four-year college remains the gold standard for many families, nearly half of parents of current middle and high school students wish that more postsecondary options existed. And even among parents who hope their children will earn a bachelor’s degree, 40% are interested in skills- and work-focused training opportunities such as internships or apprenticeships.”
The federal government is moving to allow hiring what are (cleverly) called “STARS,” people who are Skilled Through Alternative Routes. Supposedly, we have 70 million STARS in our labor pool today. Three Democratic Senators are pushing a bill that would allow the government to hire individuals who do not have college degrees but have “developed job-related skills through alternative routes, which may include at a community college, in an apprenticeship, through a bootcamp, through military service, through partial college completion, in other training programs, or through on-the-job experience.”
Assuming Linda McMahon is confirmed as U.S. Secretary of Education, we might expect her to support more apprenticeships, workforce training, and career awareness programs, all of which she is on record as favoring. In an op-ed for The Hill, she wrote, “Half a century ago, it was commonly understood that funding a college degree for low-income students was the best way to upskill America’s workforce. Colleges were focused on preparing students for professional roles at the highest levels of government, science, business and the arts.
Today, however, many degree programs have lost sight of their mission. And their one-size-fits-all solution to workforce development has become outdated. Our educational system must offer clear and viable pathways to the American Dream aside from four-year degrees.”
Her solution, one supported by many Republicans in Congress, is to loosen Pell Grant rules to pay for short-term vocational and occupational training. While that seems to make sense on one level, it will also open the door to for-profit programs, quite a few of which have a long history of shady practices. Her predecessor in the first Trump Administration, Betsy DeVos, embraced for-profit higher education with horrendous results. A repeat would be disastrous.
Above all, we need to change our attitudes about work and college. Let’s take to heart the wisdom of the great John Gardner: “An excellent plumber is infinitely more admirable than an incompetent philosopher. The society that scorns excellence in plumbing because plumbing is a humble activity and tolerates shoddiness in philosophy because it is an exalted activity will have neither good plumbing nor good philosophy.”
Let’s change, but let’s never say, “Well, not everyone should go to college, so we should provide other opportunities.” That condescending language and that way of thinking connote inferiority and superiority.
By the way, I have a new electrician. He’s an immigrant who came here from Brazil a few years ago with his wife and two children. He took night classes and is now a competent electrician.
The title of this piece echoes the familiar folk song, “Where have all the flowers gone,” and so I will end by echoing the question that curious young children ask about babies. “Where do plumbers come from, Mommy?”
They come from opportunity….